Carlos Alcaraz keeps surviving in Tokyo but Jiri Lehecka presents his toughest test yet
Match News and Form
Throughout his career, particularly in the early rounds, Carlos Alcaraz has occasionally shown a tendency to play in a relaxed manner and operate at a lower intensity. We have seen similar spells from him in recent weeks, but what makes the current situation more concerning is that he is returning from injury, so this dip in performance level cannot simply be dismissed as something he can easily overcome by raising his intensity. Despite those concerns, he continues to find ways to win in Tokyo, even after getting himself into trouble in every match, with his latest semifinal victory over Jaume Munar coming from a set down after he had led 5-3 in the opening set.
After a difficult week in Tokyo, Alcaraz is now just one win away from lifting the title. Although it is only an ATP 500 crown, it would carry significant value for him, not only by providing a much-needed boost in momentum and confidence after returning from injury, but also because titles during this final stretch of the season have historically been hard to come by for him. In fact, he has won just two titles in post-US Open tournaments throughout his career, with one of those coming in Tokyo last year on his debut appearance.
Jiri Lehecka's campaign has taken shape in almost reverse fashion, as he started with back-to-back three-set wins over Zizou Bergs and Ugo Humbert before producing increasingly dominant performances as the tournament progressed, cruising past Daniel Vallejo and Valentin Vacherot. It is a much-needed and satisfying result for Lehecka, who has shown a steady level in his game over the last couple of months but struggled to translate that into a big result, largely due to an unfortunate run of draws that repeatedly saw him face dangerous, in-form opponents in the early rounds.
Head-to-head: Carlos Alcaraz leads 3-1
Three of their previous four encounters came during the 2025 season, and overall, Alcaraz has maintained a clear upper hand in the matchup.
Stats and Facts
Alcaraz won eight titles last year, with Tokyo being his eighth, but he is yet to successfully defend any of those titles this season.
Alcaraz is 27-9 in tour-level finals, with six of his nine defeats coming against top-10 opponents.
Lehecka is currently on a six-match winning streak, including back-to-back victories over top-20 opponents at the Davis Cup last month.
Lehecka has a 12-26 record against top-10 opponents in his career.
Lehecka has lost six of his eight tour-level finals, with both of his victories coming against opponents ranked outside the top 50.
Betting Analysis
Jiri Lehecka can be an inconsistent player, with his performance levels often fluctuating, particularly when fitness becomes an issue. However, when he finds his rhythm and gets everything clicking, he has the quality to challenge even the very best, as he has already shown against Carlos Alcaraz on a couple of occasions.
If Lehecka can produce his best tennis in this final and Alcaraz continues to perform at the level he has shown throughout his previous four matches in Tokyo, the Czech has a strong opportunity not only to win but potentially to do so comfortably. Still, Alcaraz's reputation and the occasion make this a difficult task, and much could depend on how well Lehecka handles the challenge mentally against a vulnerable-looking top player.