Schmidt era ends with exciting homecoming for Perth local Tizzano

Match News and Current Form

Two games into this competition, Australia are still searching for their first victory following a narrow defeat in round one to Ireland in Sydney and a 26-42 loss to France in Brisbane last week. In total, it is now six successive defeats for the Wallabies and nine losses from their last ten (W1), a run which stretches back to mid-September last year.

Despite this poor run, Australia are the top team in the Championship for lineout steals with Josh Carnham taking three from their opponents. Head coach Joe Schmidt, who will depart the role following this game, believes his side are ‘not far off’ the pace and has made three changes to the starting XV with flanker Carlo Tizzano, hooker Brandon Paenga-Amosa and wing Harry Potter coming into the side.

With the lowest points tally of any of the 12 teams in the competition (27), and as the only team in the Northern Hemisphere table yet to win a game, it should come as no surprise that Italy head coach Gonzalo Quesada, himself suspended for two games after post-match comments criticising a referee, has made nine changes from their 47-17 defeat to New Zealand in Wellington last week.

Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane will be the two wingers for Gli Azzurri with Lorenzo Pani at full-back and Nacho Brex at outside centre. Captain Michele Lamaro, Ross Vintcent and Riccardo Favretto make up the back-row as Italy, who lost to Japan in the opening round of fixtures, look to avoid a fourth successive defeat and a sixth loss from their last seven games (W1).

Head-to-Head History

Australia have won 18 of their 20 previous matches against Italy (L2) and are unbeaten at home in the fixture. However, the two Italian victories came in the last two meetings in 2022 and 2025.

Hot Stats and Streaks

The betting favourite has won 83% of Australia’s games since the start of 2024.

Across the first two rounds, Australia have conceded 53 of their 75 points in the first 20 minutes of both halves.

Only four of Italy’s last 17 matches cleared the main total points handicap.

Italy have been behind at half-time in each of their last five matches.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Australia winger Carlo Tizzano will play in front of his home supporters after a tremendous Super Rugby season in which he scored in eight out of 12 matches. whilst Louis Lynagh got Italy’s first try in their 26-19 triumph over Australia last November.

Australia’s Fraser McReight picked up a knock against France but is fit enough to be a replacement while Dylan Pietsch (calf injury) and Josh Nasser (concussion) are unavailable. For Italy, Tommaso Allan (rib) and Lorenzo Cannone (foot) miss out with injuries.

Click here to view the match squads and latest team news.

Betting Analysis

With the Wallabies producing a large amount of their points before half-time in their last two games, backing Australia to score over 19.5 first-half points could be a smart move.