Australia vs England: Ashes first Test predictions, best bets and odds

Australia v England: Ashes first Test predictions, best bets and odds
Australia v England: Ashes first Test predictions, best bets and oddsFlashscore

The 74th series of the Ashes commences on Friday as Australia and England reignite their rivalry in Perth. We’ve analysed the stats ahead of this week’s keenly anticipated first test, enabling us to provide you with a handful of data-driven betting tips.

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Offers for Australia only

After these two fierce adversaries played out a stalemate on English soil in 2023, Australia assume hosting duties this time around. The visitors will be desperate to recapture the urn following a disastrous sequence of results, having failed to win an Ashes series for over a decade.

This week’s meeting at the Perth Stadium – the first time this venue has ever staged an Australia v England Test – marks the first of what promises to be five thrilling tests, which are set to consume the focus of the cricketing world over the course of the next two months.  

Although there have been question marks surrounding the fitness of several players on both teams, it’s Australia who head into Friday’s opener with the more significant injury list.

Influential skipper Pat Cummins is unavailable due to struggling with lumbar bone stress in his lower back, while New South Wales bowling duo Josh Hazlewood and Sean Abbott are currently nursing hamstring strains.

Andrew McDonald has subsequently drafted in several quality replacements, but the Aussies will undoubtedly be weaker without this absent trio.

Meanwhile, England have witnessed the return of several key contributors. Having undergone knee surgery in March for a serious issue he sustained during England’s disappointing ICC Champions Trophy defeat to Afghanistan, Mark Wood appears to be almost back to his imperious best.

The Durham seamer has continued his rehabilitation following his arrival in Australia, as he aims to end a frustrating nine-month spell on the sidelines. Ben Stokes hasn’t featured in a single first-class cricket match since July, after damaging his shoulder towards the latter stages of the recent epic duel with India.

However, the England captain appears ready for action.

So, how do we expect this one to unfold?

Australia v England, Friday 21st November, 10:20am local (1:20pm AEDT)

Australia v England tips

Australia to win the match: $1.75 (bet365)

Mitchell Starc to take 5+ match wickets: $1.66 (bet365)

Joe Root to score a century in the match: $4.00 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Australia likely to prevail in Perth

Since reacquiring the Ashes thanks to a convincing 4-0 victory in the 2017/18 series, Australia have retained the urn with minimal fuss. The next encounter Down Under produced the same emphatic scoreline, while the two subsequent meetings in England both ended 2-2 after the Baggy Greens led heading into the fifth and final test.

Moreover, England haven’t beaten Australia in their own backyard since January 2011, when Andy Flower’s men won with an innings to spare – the third time this occurred throughout the series – in Sydney’s southern suburbs.  

However, the Three Lions’ recent record in Perth is somehow far worse. England last avoided defeat in the Western Australia capital almost four decades ago, having gained a valuable draw at the WACA en route to clinching the 1986/87 series.

An elusive triumph at the same iconic stadium arrived eight years prior, as a superb century from the legendary David Gower propelled England into an unassailable lead.

While the historical stats suggest a home win is on the cards, a cursory glance at each team’s current form also points to the same outcome. After sweeping aside West Indies with consummate ease in the Caribbean, the Aussies comfortably overcame neighbours New Zealand in a rain-impacted three-match T20I series.

They then contested a sequence of ODI and T20I fixtures against two-time World Cup champions India, with neither team managing to exert dominance over the other.

Meanwhile, English preparations have been far from ideal. Following a deflating draw against India in the aforementioned gruelling series and an even tussle with South Africa, England edged out Ireland in a T20I contest in Dublin.

However, three consecutive One Day International losses to New Zealand really dampened spirits in the lead-up to a potentially era-defining Ashes series, leaving Head Coach Brendon McCullum with plenty to ponder.  

Betting tip: Australia to win the match @ $1.75 (bet365)

Explanation: This bet will land if Australia win in Perth.

Expect another Starc masterclass

For some time now, there are few better bowlers in the world than Australia’s Mitchell Starc. The New South Wales ace presides over a phenomenal Ashes record, which was further enhanced by a glittering 2023 performance. Starc claimed 23 wickets on that occasion, more than any other player in an Australian or English shirt.

However, he was unable to prevent England from snatching a crucial victory in the final test at the Oval, despite eliminating four opponents in each innings.

Although he was lethal with the ball in hand throughout the last major contest between these two cricketing giants, Starc did prove a little expensive at times. This was also the case eighteen months prior, when he generated an economy of 3.17 and a 25.37 average during the 2021/22 series.

However, the 2024 Wisden Cricketer of the Year recipient still concluded that particular Australian summer with 19 dismissals, while only Nathan Lyon – who could very soon surpass Glenn McGrath to become the Baggy Greens’ second-leading all-time wicket taker – registered more maidens.

Having produced the fastest-ever five-wicket haul in test cricket during July before delivering a dazzling bowling display in last week’s Sheffield Shield clash at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Starc heads into the 2025/26 series curtain-raiser in confident mood.

Betting tip: Mitchell Starc to take five or more wickets @ $1.66 (bet365)

Explanation: This bet will land if Mitchell Starc claims at least five wickets during the match, regardless of the method of dismissal.

Can Root eventually become a centurion behind enemy lines?

Having eclipsed Ricky Ponting’s eye-watering career runs total in the summer, England’s Joe Root is now the second-highest scorer in test history. However, quite incredibly, the 34-year-old star has never recorded a century in an away Ashes series, although he did come extremely close to achieving this feat in Brisbane back in December 2021.

Root has struck an overall batting average of 35.68 across his 14 tests on Australian shores, his lowest total in any country he’s played in more than twice.

However, only Alastair Cook and Ian Bell have hit a higher number of half-centuries Down Under than the Trent Rockets talisman, who has reached 50 runs in a single innings on nine separate occasions.   

On his last Ashes appearance, Root recorded 91 runs during an outstanding knock at The Oval – can he go at least nine better in Perth?

Betting tip: Joe Root to score a century in the match @ $4.00 (bet365)

Explanation: This bet will land if Joe Root registers more than 100 runs in either innings. 

Australia vs. England odds

Australia: $1.75 (bet365)

Draw: $13.00 (bet365)

England: $2.45 (bet365)

The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.

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