Yes, it’s the Maple Leafs who will have the right to select first among the biggest hockey talents at the end of June.
You could say that Toronto has been incredibly lucky. In the past decade, they missed the playoffs only twice, but both times quickly made up for it by winning the draft lottery.
Ten years ago, their chance at the first overall pick was just 20%. This time, it was even more of a long shot. With only an 8.5% probability, they managed to hit the jackpot again.
Critics are quick to point out a striking statistic from the last decade: The Maple Leafs have won more draft lotteries in the past 10 years than playoff series.
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Lamoriello’s Brilliant Choice
Toronto knows how to make the most of a first overall pick. In 1985, they selected Wendel Clark—someone who became a fan favorite.
And it’s worth noting that in 2016, then-general manager Lou Lamoriello also made a great call. The Maple Leafs decided to draft future superstar Auston Matthews.
His story was remarkable. The season before entering the NHL, he chose to play in Europe because he wanted to compete against players 21 and older—something Canadian rules didn’t allow.
Under coach Mark Crawford, the 18-year-old lit up the scoreboard for the Zurich Lions.
Few people remember that Matthews made his professional debut in September 2015 in a Champions Hockey League game against Sparta. Only 3,500 fans showed up at Prague’s O2 Arena that night…
Now, there’s a lot of speculation swirling around the current icon, who has scored 428 goals in 10 seasons with Toronto.
The feared sniper has hinted he’s unsure what the future holds after this summer. "I can’t predict the future," he admitted after a season in which Toronto’s players looked more broken than brilliant.
He knew that scoring just 27 goals was far below expectations, even though he missed 24 games due to a knee injury.
Matthews also sensed the team had lost its competitive edge. North American media reported that, instead of vague promises, the captain wants to see what the roster looks like after the trade period. He’s close to negotiating a new contract, and his future in Toronto is far from certain, even though he still has two years left on his current deal.
“Auston is the captain of Toronto—this is his team. But it’s clear that the last few months haven’t been easy for him at the club. I want to hear his perspective so he can help shape our vision,” said new general manager John Chayka, whose appointment caused quite a stir in North America.
McKenna or Stenberg?
Right now, two names are being mentioned as the likely first overall pick. It would be a huge surprise if the Maple Leafs didn’t select Gavin McKenna. For Canada, this teenager represents the new generation. He’s played for every youth national team and has always been a leader. Three seasons in the WHL, where he set the record for 51 straight games with at least a point, and a year in college hockey, where he put up the most assists in a season for a freshman at Penn State, have toughened him up.
"I’ve been following him for several years," Chayka said. "His skill level, creativity, puck handling, and shooting are all exceptional. He’s a complete player. We’ll meet with the scouts and discuss everything," hinted the new GM, who received a fantastic gift just his second day on the job.
But another teenager is also drawing attention—Ivar Stenberg, who impressed so much this year with Vastra Frolunda that he’ll likely be called up to the Swedish national team for the World Championship. The brother of new St. Louis Blues signing Otto Stenberg is considered an elite playmaker with high hockey IQ, outstanding work ethic, and strong defensive habits.
But the overwhelming consensus is that McKenna is the undisputed choice at No. 1 in the upcoming draft.
Playing for the Captain and the Fans
But Toronto is playing for even more. They have a unique chance to put two first-overall draft stars on the same team. And according to the new management, keeping Matthews is a top priority.
"Auston has been the league’s top scorer over the past 10 years—he’s a superstar in his own right. He’s won Olympic gold. I think he’s a great leader; he captained Team USA to gold at the Olympics. Toronto and its fans should be thrilled to have a player of his caliber," said the legendary Mats Sundin.
It’s clear that a lot of important decisions will be made behind the scenes in Toronto. Maple Leafs Garden is in for a hot summer…